Gears of War: E-Day sells an estimated 230K copies, but Game Pass takes the blame

Gears of War: E-Day has sold an estimated 230,000 copies since its October 1 advance-access launch, according to Alinea Analytics. The firm calls it a soft result for the best-reviewed Gears game in nearly two decades. Its explanation is Xbox’s own business model rather than a lack of demand.

None of the figures are confirmed by Microsoft. They are Alinea’s modelled estimates, covering the advance-access period and the first days after the October 6 full release.

The numbers

Alinea analyst Rhys Elliott posted the headline figure on X on October 9. Steam accounts for 168,000 of the 230,000 copies, while Xbox, counting console and PC, sold 62,000.

Revenue tells a different story. Alinea puts the total at about $37 million, with roughly $26 million coming from Xbox and about $11 million from Steam. Xbox makes up almost three-quarters of the money despite selling far fewer copies, because of the Premium upgrade that Game Pass subscribers could buy for $30, or the local equivalent, to get up to five days of early access.

Alinea estimates that 1.7 million people accessed the game through Game Pass, and 722,000 of them paid for that upgrade. That is about $21.7 million on its own. Counting upgrades, nearly 950,000 people paid something for the game. On Xbox, each copy sold alongside nearly 12 upgrades, which Alinea says leaves the $70 Premium edition “functionally dead” on the platform.

Game Pass is the story

Alinea’s argument is that Game Pass takes the revenue a game this well reviewed would otherwise earn. In its view, many of the 722,000 who paid for early access would have bought the game outright at $70 if it weren’t in the subscription on day one. Xbox, it says, ends up charging its most willing customers the least.

The firm points to Call of Duty as the comparison. Xbox has already pulled the series from day-one Game Pass, and new entries now reach the service around a year late. Alinea also notes rumours that other day-one releases could follow, which Microsoft has dismissed so far. It describes Game Pass as no longer growing, and says Xbox’s stated priority is revenue growth.

Kotaku’s coverage took the same figures and asked whether they are good or bad for The Coalition, one of several Xbox studios reportedly worried about cuts. Alinea itself says Game Pass still brings in meaningful recurring revenue, and that the game adds value for subscribers.

Alinea’s earlier read on the Steam presales was also 120,000 copies by late September, more than double what Halo: Campaign Evolved managed over a similar period, according to GameSpot’s report of the analysis.

Who is playing

Alinea’s data shows an audience that is mostly returning. Among Xbox players, 86% have played Gears 5 and 76% Gears 4. This month, the top three other games they played were Fortnite (16%), Roblox (7%) and Call of Duty (6%).

Steam players lean towards shooters: Wardogs (13%), Deadlock (12%) and CS2 (10%) lead, with Helldivers 2 and Space Marine 2 further down.

Playtime differs by platform, and Alinea attributes much of it to Game Pass:

Alinea says this is typical of subscription titles, since free-to-try players sample a game and leave. Forza Horizon 6 showed the same pattern, with 11% of Xbox players leaving within an hour against 2% on Steam.

Context for Gears fans

The sales estimates arrive in a busy week for the franchise. We’ve covered how The Coalition used the Xbox Series S SSD as extra memory in the game, and the 8BitDo keyboard and mouse tied to it. On the wider business, Xbox recently launched its XP division to take franchises into film, TV and theme parks.