Apple Is About to Become the World’s #1 Phone Maker (Again)

Counterpoint Research expects Apple to end 2025 as the world’s biggest smartphone maker, ahead of Samsung, thanks to iPhone 17 demand and an upgrade wave.

Photo by ubeyonroad / Unsplash

Apple is about to do something it hasn’t managed in more than ten years: finish the year as the world’s biggest phone maker. A new forecast from Counterpoint Research, reported by Bloomberg, says Apple is set to end 2025 ahead of Samsung in global smartphone shipments, powered by the iPhone 17 boom and a huge upgrade cycle among people still holding on to their Covid-era phones.

And if you live in the UAE and feel like everyone around you either just bought an iPhone 17 or is thinking about one – you’re not imagining it.

Counterpoint Research now expects Apple to end 2025 as the world’s biggest smartphone maker, ahead of Samsung, for the first time in over a decade.
Strong iPhone 17 demand in the US and China plus a massive global upgrade cycle are driving a forecast 10% jump in iPhone shipments.
Samsung is still growing, but more slowly, with around 4.6% expected growth and a smaller share of 2025 shipments.
Apple could grab about 19.4% of the 2025 smartphone market and stay on top until at least 2029, helped by a future foldable iPhone and a cheaper iPhone 17e.
In the UAE, Xiaomi still leads by unit share, but Apple dominates the premium segment and high-income users – so the global shift matches what you already see at Dubai malls.

Apple set to knock Samsung off the top spot

Counterpoint’s latest numbers suggest Apple will reclaim the “world’s largest smartphone maker” title in 2025, after more than a decade of Samsung dominance.

Apple iPhone shipments are projected to grow about 10% year-on-year in 2025.
Samsung is expected to grow around 4.6% over the same period.
Apple could reach roughly 19.4% share of the global smartphone market in 2025.
The overall smartphone market is only forecast to grow about 3.3%, so Apple is outpacing the pack.

The smartphone market is barely growing, but Apple is taking a larger share of that limited pie. This isn’t about phones suddenly selling like crazy again. It’s about Apple capturing more of the buyers who are still spending – especially at the high end. Counterpoint’s data also shows Apple already holds around 62% of the global premium segment (phones above roughly $600), which is exactly where most iPhone 17 models sit.

The iPhone 17 upgrade wave

The real engine behind this forecast is the iPhone 17 series. Launched in September, the phones have delivered double-digit sales growth in both the US and China compared with the previous generation.

In the first month of iPhone 17 availability, Apple’s sales jumped about 22%, while the overall market actually shrank slightly.
In October, Apple posted around 37% year-on-year growth in iPhone sales, versus roughly 8% growth for the wider market.
About 358 million used iPhones were sold between 2023 and mid-2025 – many of those buyers are likely future new-iPhone upgraders.

People who bought smartphones during the Covid boom are now hitting the “this battery is dying” phase. Counterpoint’s analysts say this replacement cycle is reaching its peak right as Apple has a line-up that feels fresh enough – iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, and the ultra-light iPhone Air, which we’ve already reviewed for UAE buyers.

If you want the local angle, our breakdown of iPhone 17 Pro UAE prices and specs and our iPhone Air review show exactly why these models are tempting so many upgraders here.

What this means for Samsung (and the rest of Android)

This is not a Samsung-is-dead story. The company is still huge and will also grow next year – just not as fast as Apple, according to Counterpoint’s forecast.

Samsung is expected to post mid-single-digit growth in shipments for 2025.
Its main pressure point is the premium segment, where Apple’s share is already above 60% globally.
Android rivals like Xiaomi, HONOR and others are fighting hard below the flagship price band, especially in markets like the GCC.

Samsung still leads on foldables and has a broad range of price points. But the growth is clearly shifting toward Apple in regions where people can afford to replace phones every two to three years – like the US, China, and of course the Gulf. Android brands will need to push harder on value, camera performance, and software updates to keep users from jumping ship to iOS.

If you’re considering switching, our guide to the best phones of 2025 in the UAE compares iPhones with the top Android options in more detail.

How the UAE smartphone market fits in

Globally, Apple is on top. In the UAE, the picture is a bit different – at least by raw unit share. Statcounter’s latest data for October 2025 shows:

Xiaomi: about 20.9% of UAE mobile vendor share
Samsung: about 17.7%
Apple: about 13.8%

Those numbers mix premium flagships with cheaper devices, so brands that sell lots of budget and mid-range phones naturally look bigger. But separate research on the Middle East shows that iOS is the fastest-growing platform in the region, and that in the UAE, iPhones are especially popular among high-income households, driven by brand loyalty and the Apple ecosystem.

Walk around Dubai Mall or Yas Mall on a weekend, and it lines up: tons of iPhones, even if Xiaomi or Samsung might lead on shipment charts. That’s also why discounts on older iPhones during events like Prime Day get so much attention here – as we saw in our roundup of the best Prime Day Apple deals in the UAE.

For many UAE buyers, the real question isn’t “Apple or Samsung globally?” but “Do I go all-in on the Apple ecosystem now, or save money with an Android flagship and spend the rest on travel?”

What comes next: foldables and cheaper iPhones

Counterpoint doesn’t see this as a one-year blip. Its forecast suggests Apple could stay the world’s top phone maker until at least 2029, helped by two key products:

A foldable iPhone is expected around 2026
A more affordable iPhone 17e, aimed at pulling budget-conscious users into the Apple ecosystem

The logic is simple: keep the premium buyers happy with Pro-level devices, and use cheaper models to bring in new users who will later move up the ladder. In markets like the UAE, where instalment plans and trade-in deals are common, a lower-priced iPhone 17e could be the “first iPhone” for a lot of Android users.

And once they’re in, things like iOS 26.1’s new features and AI tricks make it even harder to switch away.

FAQs

Why is Apple expected to overtake Samsung as the world’s top phone maker?

Apple is growing faster than the rest of the market. Counterpoint Research forecasts around 10% growth in iPhone shipments in 2025, versus roughly 4–5% for Samsung, helped by strong iPhone 17 demand and a big global upgrade cycle. That’s enough to push Apple to about 19.4% share of global smartphone shipments.

Is this already confirmed, or just a forecast?

It’s a forecast based on Counterpoint’s Smartphone 360 tracking data, not final annual numbers. The report, highlighted by Bloomberg and other outlets, projects where shipments will end up by the end of 2025. Things like economic shocks or major product issues could still change the outcome, but for now the trend points strongly in Apple’s favour.

Will Apple stay number one for long?

According to Counterpoint’s outlook, Apple is likely to remain the top smartphone brand until at least 2029, helped by future models like a foldable iPhone and a lower-priced iPhone 17e. That said, forecasts always have some uncertainty, and Android brands are not standing still.

Does this mean iPhone prices will drop in the UAE?

Not really. Apple’s strategy is to own the premium market, not to win a race to the bottom. You’re more likely to see better offers on older models, trade-in bonuses, and seasonal promotions from retailers – similar to the deals we tracked in our Prime Day iPhone offers in the UAE.

Should I buy an iPhone or an Android phone in 2025 in the UAE?

It depends on your budget and what you care about. If you want long-term software support, tight integration with a Mac or iPad, and strong resale value, an iPhone 16 or 17 series device makes sense. If you prioritise price, fast charging, or foldable designs, flagship Android phones from brands like Samsung, Xiaomi or HONOR may offer better value. Our best phones of 2025 in the UAE guide compares your options by price and features.