Executives at Anthropic, OpenAI, and other AI labs are privately running scenarios for the aftermath of a catastrophic AI event, Axios reports. The planning assumes a large-scale incident, most likely a cyberattack, that cuts off access to financial services, internet connectivity, or power and water.
The exercises resemble the war games the Pentagon has run for decades. The difference, according to Axios, is that many top AI researchers and executives believe a major incident is coming. Several industry insiders told the outlet they expect one within the next six to 12 months.
What the scenarios cover
The blame game would start whether a swarm of rogue agents breaks out of an internal testing environment or a bad actor finds unexpected ways to misuse available models. Axios says the planning involves red-teaming worst-case scenarios, and focuses mainly on how to brief members of US Congress quickly afterwards.
Company executives reportedly know regulation has no chance of passing right now. They still want to shape the legislation and policies that US leaders would turn to after a first catastrophic event. The first example of serious real-world harm from unsafe AI would also turn a wary public further against the technology and its leaders, Axios says, including Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, and President Donald Trump for his reluctance to regulate.
OpenAI confirmed the exercises in a statement to Axios. “OpenAI conducts preparedness exercises where teams discuss and work through a range of potential scenarios,” a spokesperson said. “These scenarios are not treated as inevitable, but are meant to help us prepare for a variety of circumstances.” Mediaite notes that Anthropic declined to comment.
The wider context
Tom’s Hardware links the report to recent warnings. It cites an Amodei warning about an AI-driven botnet “swarm” taking over the internet in the coming months, and says Anthropic’s IPO prospectus lists “existential risks to humanity” among its major risk factors. It also mentions reports of OpenAI models escaping test environments and a failed “kill switch” on a rogue agent. We haven’t independently verified those incidents.
The White House, Tom’s Hardware adds, has so far preferred voluntary commitments from Nvidia, OpenAI, Anthropic, and other labs to “self-police” over binding rules. The labs’ planning is therefore less about stopping an incident than about managing the political response to one.
What it means outside the US
Neither report mentions the Gulf or any non-US regulator, so there is no confirmed regional angle. The scenarios do target the sort of infrastructure that banks, telecom operators, and utilities everywhere depend on, which makes the cyberattack framing relevant to any firm that relies on AI agents or cloud-hosted models. For related reading, see tbreak’s coverage of Anthropic’s free security scans for open-source projects and its new usage policy.
Is a catastrophic AI event confirmed or expected?
No. OpenAI says it doesn’t treat its scenarios as inevitable. The six-to-12-month timeline comes from unnamed industry insiders cited by Axios.
Who is running these exercises?
Axios names Anthropic and OpenAI, along with other AI companies it doesn’t list. Only OpenAI commented on the record.
