According to IDC’s preliminary tracker data, worldwide PC shipments fell 20.1% year on year in the third quarter of 2026. The market shipped 62.7 million units, against 78.5 million in Q3 2025. PC Gamer picked up the figures, and the reason is the one you’d guess: the AI-driven memory and supply crunch is pushing PC prices up and demand down.
Why a normally strong quarter collapsed
The summer-to-autumn quarter usually beats Q2, thanks to back-to-school buying and new product launches. This year it came in 9.1% below Q2, and IDC calls the result a “broken seasonal pattern”. The main culprit is a pull-in earlier in the year. Vendors and channels bought stock ahead of memory-driven price hikes, which inflated first-half shipments and, in IDC’s words, left Q3 “starved of demand”.
IDC research director Jitesh Ubrani said channels now worry about carrying too much inventory into a market where high prices are suppressing demand. That decline is the second in a row, and a far deeper one than the 3.8% drop in Q2. As reported by Slashdot, relaying PCMag, IDC calls it the worst Q3 decline it has recorded. Ubrani added that other quarters have fallen further, such as 2022Q4 at -28.2% and 2023Q1 at -28.7%, though both followed pandemic highs.
Who lost the most
The pain wasn’t evenly shared. Lenovo, HP and Dell all fell faster than the market and together gave up 4.2 points of share, which IDC links to the effects of their earlier pull-in. HP took the biggest hit, with shipments down 30.9% and its share sliding from 19.1% to 16.5%. Apple and ASUS fell more slowly than the market, so both gained share.
| Vendor | Q3 2026 shipments (millions) | Share | Change vs Q3 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lenovo | 14.9 | 23.8% | -22.6% |
| HP Inc | 10.3 | 16.5% | -30.9% |
| Dell Technologies | 7.6 | 12.1% | -25.0% |
| Apple | 5.9 | 9.5% | -11.3% |
| ASUS | 5.5 | 8.7% | -8.6% |
| Others | 18.4 | 29.4% | -14.0% |
Source: IDC Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker, 8 October 2026. Preliminary results.
Lenovo stays first, with HP second and Dell third, the same order as a year ago. IDC counts desktops, notebooks and workstations. Tablets and x86 servers aren’t included.
What IDC expects next
There’s a sliver of good news for shoppers. With inventory building and demand soft at high prices, IDC says promotions are possible in the near term. Ubrani was blunt about the limits, saying IDC doesn’t expect pricing “anywhere near what it was a year ago”. The firm also flags macro conditions as the bigger risk, since it says they’ve worsened since last quarter and a weaker economy could push demand lower through the rest of 2026 and into 2027.
The squeeze isn’t limited to PCs. IDC’s press room lists a separate release saying global smartphone shipments fell 22% to 255.3 million units in Q3, a record drop it also ties to memory costs. Consoles have felt it too, as our report on Xbox hardware sales hitting an all-time May low amid price hikes shows. The same AI buildout that’s soaking up memory supply is a big story in the Gulf as well, where the UAE leads the world on AI adoption.
IDC’s release gives no regional breakdown, so it doesn’t say how the UAE, Saudi Arabia or Egypt fared. We recommend treating any short-term discounts as a chance to buy a machine you need now, rather than a sign that last year’s pricing is coming back.
Will PC prices come down soon?
IDC says promotions are possible in the near term because channels are worried about inventory, but it expects prices to stay well above year-ago levels. It describes any relief as short-term.
Do these figures include tablets and Macs?
IDC’s count covers desktops, notebooks and workstations, and Apple’s Macs are included under Apple. Tablets and x86 servers are excluded.
Do the figures cover the UAE, Saudi Arabia or Egypt?
IDC’s tracker covers more than 90 countries, but the Q3 release only gives global totals and vendor rankings. It doesn’t publish a regional split.
